Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.857972 1.961972 2.070762 2.193415 2.328292 2.472596 2.639333
2025-10-05 1.724977 1.872785 2.034672 2.226519 2.449506 2.702838 3.015831
2025-10-12 1.643802 1.818848 2.016787 2.259900 2.554344 2.904728 3.361688
2025-10-19 1.579984 1.774563 2.000256 2.285670 2.643483 3.086692 3.693480
2025-10-26 1.510506 1.716363 1.959952 2.275281 2.681915 3.202846 3.946750
2025-11-02 1.451042 1.665200 1.922988 2.263568 2.713924 3.308796 4.192478
2025-11-09 1.392503 1.611168 1.878167 2.237039 2.721912 3.379782 4.392359
2025-11-16 1.339512 1.560937 1.834700 2.208309 2.722943 3.438508 4.577093
2025-11-23 1.304774 1.531696 1.815918 2.210058 2.764272 3.555622 4.862189
2025-11-30 1.279829 1.513460 1.809907 2.227710 2.827755 3.708700 5.222105
2025-12-07 1.238337 1.471938 1.771067 2.197539 2.819440 3.751262 5.400508
2025-12-14 1.196804 1.428764 1.728106 2.159108 2.795944 3.767304 5.532875
2025-12-21 1.156608 1.386572 1.685573 2.120234 2.770837 3.780946 5.667105
2025-12-28 1.144154 1.380674 1.691853 2.151164 2.853095 3.974893 6.166246
2026-01-04 1.132804 1.375605 1.698700 2.182730 2.937768 4.180129 6.723509
2026-01-11 1.119760 1.367607 1.700882 2.207085 3.012095 4.374236 7.295403
2026-01-18 1.096471 1.344748 1.681144 2.197267 3.029876 4.468706 7.667447
2026-01-25 1.074129 1.322462 1.661328 2.186198 3.044495 4.558115 8.044845
2026-02-01 1.048677 1.295113 1.633298 2.161117 3.033778 4.598534 8.312020
2026-02-08 1.023870 1.267998 1.604734 2.133945 3.017756 4.627083 8.555242
2026-02-15 1.008823 1.254139 1.594904 2.135599 3.051355 4.755487 9.087617
2026-02-22 0.998846 1.247096 1.594695 2.152295 3.112087 4.944210 9.836032
2026-03-01 0.976554 1.221982 1.567051 2.123756 3.090191 4.960177 10.088884